Adaptation to Climate Change in Basins within the Context of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus

Abstract

This study uses a water-food-energy nexus model, which connects water-based productive activities and allocation policies, to simulate water resources management strategies for adapting the Maule Basin in Chile to climate change impacts. Two strategies are considered: introducing linear hedging rules to a reservoir and establishing adaptative water rights linked to irrigation efficiency of crops in the area. The simulations are run over 14 different climatic scenarios that project different water availability conditions. A multiobjective optimization of environmental, agricultural, and energy outcome indicators is conducted to generate noninferior portfolios that combine the strategies proposed. Simulation results, though limited to a deterministic approach and pessimistic climate scenarios, show that 79 out of the 84 combinations of objective-scenarios increase their performance because of the strategies, with notable increases in agricultural resilience (64%), outflow (92%), and total benefits (26%). We find considerable trade-offs between the food/energy production and water outflow, alongside agricultural vulnerability and resilience.