Car drivers’ valuation of landslide risk reductions

Abstract

Approximately one car occupant per year is killed as a result of landslides or avalanches in Norway, compared to 150–200 fatalities due to accidents. Still, protection from landslides is a major transport safety issue, possibly due to the concern and dread felt by the car-driving population travelling through landslide-prone areas. A main challenge when valuing landslide risk economically lies in distinguishing it from the standard road accident risk of having a collision or running off the road.

In this paper we present an approach to the valuation of landslide risk, using a stated choice experiment where internet survey respondents were asked to choose between route alternatives that differed in terms of landslide risk, casualty risk, time use and cost. Thus, landslide risk was explicitly valued as an attribute, besides travel time and casualty risk, conveying a valuation of a feature different than the risk of fatality or injury caused by ordinary road accidents.

The stated route choice data were analysed using mixed logit models. We obtained point estimates for the value of landslide risk removal per kilometre driven ranging from about EUR 0.2 to EUR 0.3. These results indicate that landslide risk was perceived as something different from casualty risk related to collisions with other road users or driving off the road. More research is warranted for developing the procedures for valuation of landslide risk before such valuations can enter as input into cost-benefit analyses of landslide-reducing measures.