Reliability-Based Estimation of Traffic Interruption Probability due to Road Waterlogging

Abstract

Floods affect road infrastructure physically and operationally, increase road user costs and road agencies cost, and eventually isolatecommunities.The research of the effect of floods on vehicular circulation is mainly focused on the stability of vehicles.There arefew studies related to the regime of still water in the trafficability. In still water, the speed flow is low and does not compromise thevehicle stability. In this case, the vehicle’s wading height becomes relevant.This article proposes a procedure to estimate the trafficinterruption probability caused by floods in roads, considering the still water regime. The procedure uses the first-order reliabilitymethod to estimate traffic interruption probabilities, based on the difference between the probability density functions (PDF) ofstill water depth (or waterlogging depth) and vehicle wading height. A specific procedure to estimate the PDF of wading heightbased in the geometric characteristics of light and heavy vehicles was developed. The PDF for water depth was estimated usingwater level profile simulation software. The procedure was applied in the south of Chile.The PDF of wading height was obtainedfrom a record of 166,155 vehicles tagged in open road tolls.The PDF of waterlogging depth was obtained from discharge recordsof 10 fluviometric stations. 42 probability curves were obtained for six vehicle classes and return periods between 4 and 500 years.The still water depth obtained for traffic interruption probability of 1,0 varied between 70 and 90 cm for light vehicles and between 110 and 150 cm for heavy vehicles.