Temporal analysis of fare evasion in Transantiago: A socio-political view

Abstract

Although fare evasion is a common problem in transport systems worldwide, the level of fare evasion experienced in Transantiago is considerably higher than the global average. This study aims to identify how social, political, and cultural components may affect levels of fare evasion experienced to complement and broaden the current research lines.A longitudinal econometric analysis is performed to determine the impacts of transport system variables (bus fare, ticket inspection, number of paid zones, and quality), macroeconomic variables (unemployment and informal employment), and socio-political variables (Transantiago and government approval, reference to scandals in the media, and general trust/confidence experimented at social level). Socio-political variables are included under the assumption that a negative perception regarding these variables may hinder the willingness of users to pay the transport fare.Results confirm existence of a positive autoregressive effect, suggesting a contagious effect in behaviour. An increase in level of inspection reduces fare evasion and an increase in bus fares increases fare evasion. New findings of this study include introduction of government approval and confidence/trust towards political and economic institutions and the ruling class as variables with a contrary effect towards fare evasion, i.e. a decrease in government approval and confidence/trust increases fare evasion.